Concepts and definitions
- Adjustment for seasonal variation
Seasonal adjustment means the estimation of seasonal variation and the elimination of its impact from a time series. The obtained result is a seasonally adjusted time series. The trend of a time series is obtained when both seasonal variation and irregular random variation are eliminated from a time series. Trading or working day adjusted series are in turn obtained when the factors caused by the variation in the number of trading days or weekdays is eliminated from the observation of the original time series. The Tramo/Seats method is used for the seasonal adjustment of time series at Statistics Finland. In the Tramo/Seats method, preadjustment is based on a regression model (which allows for outlying observations, public holidays and the weekday structure) and the seasonal adjustment proper on an ARIMA model constructed for the time series.
- Annual change
Annual change is the relative change of the index in comparison with the corresponding time period one year ago (e.g. annual change of total index of consumer prices, i.e. inflation).
- Base year
Base year refers to the base point in time of a time series. Normally, years divisible evenly by five are used as base years. In releases base year is noted, for example, as 2000 = 100 or 2005 = 100. The mean of the index point figures of a base year is 100. For example, in monthly indices the the index point figures of the months of the base year disclose the distribution of an examined variable between different months.
- Cancelled orders
An order is cancelled, when the producer of a commodity or service considers that a previously made agreement is no longer in force. Cancelled orders are not taken into account ex post in the calculation of the index of new orders.
- Delivered orders
The value of commodities and services delivered during one month.
An index is a ratio describing the relative change in a variable (e.g. price, volume or value) compared to a certain base period (e.g. one year). The index point figure for each point in time tells what percentage the given examined variable is of its respective value or volume at the base point in time. The mean of the index point figures for the base period is 100.
- Index of new orders
A value index for the commodities and services that are meant to be produced by establishments located in Finland and are either delivered to Finland or exported.
- New domestic orders
New domestic orders in manufacturing describe the value of new domestic orders manufacturing enterprises have received during a reference month. Received new orders are regarded as indicative of future output and domestic turnover.
- New export orders
New export orders describe the value of new orders received by manufacturing enterprises from export countries during the month. Received new orders are regarded as indicative of future production, turnover and exports.
- New orders in manufacturing
New orders in manufacturing describe the value of new orders manufacturing enterprises have receive during a month. Received new orders are regarded as indicators of future production and turnover.
An agreement by which the producer commits to delivering in the future to the customer the agreed commodities or services for the price specified in the agreement.
- Order stock
An order stock is the value of undelivered orders of enterprises at the end of the month.
- Original series
An index series from which the effects of factors not related to production have not been removed. Non-productional factors include variations in the number of working days per month and fluctuations in production caused by seasonal variation.
- Panel calculation
Panel calculation refers to a calculation method that is used to produce certain statistics on economic trends. If there is not enough source data for the latest examined time periods, as a rule the statistical units with comparative data for both the examined month and the corresponding month of the previous year are taken into account in the calculation. Data on this population, or panel, are used to calculate the change with which an index can be calculated for the examined point in time from the index of the corresponding point in time in the year before.
Revision means added accuracy of data. The accuracy of data can increase due to changes in the data that are used in calculations or to the availability of new data.
- Seasonal variation
Seasonal variation is variation in a time series within one year that is repeated more or less regularly. Seasonal variation may be caused by the temperature, rainfall, public holidays, cycles of seasons or holidays.
Trend describes the long-term development in a time series. A trend series has been adjusted for seasonal and random variations, so that the effects of e.g. weather conditions or short-term labour disputes do not show in it. By contrast, permanent changes, such as growth in demand due to changed taxation, will show in a trend. The direction indicated by the end of a trend should be interpreted with caution. The latter part of a trend indicator may change once it has been updated with data for subsequent months.
- Value index
A value index is a measure (ratio) that describes change in a nominal value relative to its value in the base year. The index point figure for each point in time tells what percentage a given value is at that point in time of its respective value at the base point in time. Thus, in monthly statistics the value index point figure for an examined month describes the percentage share of the value of that month of the average monthly value for the base year.
New orders in manufacturing [e-publication].
ISSN=1798-6737. Helsinki: Statistics Finland [referred: 9.12.2016].
Access method: http://www.stat.fi/til/teul/kas_en.html