Population projection

Producer: Statistics Finland
Homepage: http:// www.stat.fi/til/vaenn/index_en.html
Main topic: Population
Related topics:
Official Statistics of Finland (OSF): Yes
European Statistical System (ESS): Yes


Population projections describe future population developments. Statistics Finland’ population projections are so-called demographic trend calculations, which calculate the future population for a given area assuming that the development that has taken place in its population in recent years continues unchanged. A by-product of projection calculations by municipality is a so-called self-sufficiency estimate, which describes how the population would develop if there was no migration.

Data content

Population projections give forecasts for the number and structure of population at the end of each projection year for the whole country, and for areas according to the regional division based on municipalities. The projection also gives forecast numbers for births, deaths and migration, as well as the fertility, mortality and migration coefficients used in its calculation.

Classifications used

The data are available by diverse regional divisions based on municipalities, except for the calculation coefficients used in the projection which are only available by municipality. A population projection is made according to the regional division that is valid at the time of its publication. Projected population numbers are classified into 1 or 5-year cohorts.

Data collection methods and data sources

Finnish population statistics are based on data derived from the Population Register Centre’s Population Information System maintained by administrative courts. The Population Register Centre supplies data on population changes to Statistics Finland. In Statistics Finland’s population projections, the future size and structure of the population are calculated with fertility, mortality and migration coefficients. The coefficients are calculated from final statistics on population changes. The methods used in the projection calculations are explained in more detail in the quality description pertaining to population projections.

Updating frequency

Up to now, population projections have been made at three-yearly intervals.

Time of completion or release

Population projections are compiled and published in autumn.

Time series

Statistics Finland (previously Central Statistical Office of Finland) published the first projection concerning future development of population in Finland in 1934. Compilation of regional projections started in the 1960s. In the past few decades, population projections have been made at three-year intervals. Old projections are available in electronic from starting from the projection made in 2001.


birth rate, forecasting, increase of population, migration, mortality, natality, population, population changes, population projections, projections, vital statistics

Contact information


Last updated 01.06.2016